Let’s start with the good news: the Indy region and the state of Indiana each saw their strongest net migration growth in nearly two decades last year, adding 26,600 and 44,100 residents, respectively.
As a state, Indiana beat Midwestern peers including Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio, and the Indy region’s growth rate topped Louisville, Cincinnati, Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland. This affirms Indiana’s efforts to attract and retain talent through a favorable economic climate and investment in quality-of-life amenities.
The less promising news is that Indiana ranks in the middle of the pack nationally — 31st of 50 states — and our largest current growth driver, international migration, is projected to decline over the next few decades. With birth rates also declining across the country, Indiana’s population growth is projected to slow dramatically, adding just 9,575 net new residents and 5,243 workers per year on average over the next 25 to 35 years.
In today’s economy, these numbers matter. Population growth directly fuels workforce expansion, which is critical to business success. As of December, 164,000 jobs remained unfilled in Indiana. This means there are more open jobs today than the state’s total projected workforce growth over the next 35 years. Without more people, we simply can’t meet the growth needs of current Indiana businesses, or continue to attract new business investment..
We can’t accept these numbers as our sealed fate. If our region and state want to continue to lead the Midwest and compete nationally, we must make smart, focused talent investments today to bend the curve for tomorrow.
Indiana is already well positioned for long-term success, with strong quality of life, low taxes and cost-of-living, and a Midwest location less susceptible to climate change and natural disasters than the Sunbelt — home to many of the nation’s fastest-growing states.
Now is the time to build on these strengths, accelerate our momentum, and firmly establish Indiana as a force to be reckoned with in the competition for talent. Focusing our efforts in two critical areas will be key to long-term success: investing in homegrown Hoosiers and retaining a larger share of Indiana college graduates.
THE PATH FORWARD
First, we must grow the supply of Indiana students who earn credentials beyond a high school diploma. Our economy increasingly demands such credentials, yet our postsecondary participation rate has been declining for the last decade, mirroring a national trend and leaving 60,000 Hoosier students on the economic sidelines each and every year.
We must continue to encourage and incentivize college enrollment and completion, while also providing alternative pathways to promising jobs, such as the emerging Indiana Career Apprenticeship Pathway for high school students. Indiana is an early leader in this space, and by accelerating these efforts, we can elevate the skills and readiness of our workforce, which will attract more business investment, high-quality jobs, and people to our state.
Second, we have an extraordinary opportunity to keep more students who attend college in Indiana in our state after they graduate. Nearly 25,000 new students move to Indiana each fall to attend our world-class universities, making our state a top importer of college-going talent. Yet 34,000 graduates leave Indiana each year, ranking us among the top exporters of college graduates, as well.
We must do more to capitalize on our state’s 430,000 college students and 130,000 annual graduates. We can do this by exposing students to thriving Indiana communities, continuing to invest in quality-of-place amenities that attract young talent, and better fostering employer-student connections. By improving graduate retention even modestly, we can build momentum as an emerging talent destination.
Let’s take a moment to celebrate our growth in 2024 — and then get back to work to elevate our performance even further. Our state’s economic future and the well-being of all Hoosiers depend on it.
